BETA
Ping me when Tesla loses the BEV lead / earnings / a promise flips.
Stock Price
Market Cap
P/E (TTM)
Formula
P/S = Market Cap / TTM Revenue
— / $103.6B = —
P/S Ratio
TTM Revenue $103.6B
Next Earnings Report
Oct 22, 2026
Q3 2026 est.
TSLA vs S&P 500 vs NASDAQ (% Change)
Revenue per Employee ($K)
Tesla Auto Industry Avg
Average Selling Price per Vehicle ($K)
Revenue by Geography ($B) — FY2025
Source: Tesla 10-K FY2025 geographic segments
Short Interest (% of Float)
3.0% Current (short % of float · Jul 2026)
Source: NASDAQ short interest reports, ORTEX
Insider Trading Activity
DateInsiderTypeSharesValue
Source: SEC Form 4 filings
Supercharger Network
Total Stalls
82,357
Connectors · end Q2 2026
Stations
8,704
+18% YoY · end Q2 2026
Recent Growth
+2.4K
stalls added Q2 2026
V4 Superchargers (up to 500kW class) deploying globally. NACS is the North American standard. Network open to non-Tesla EVs; ~25,000+ NACS-accessible stalls reported on Tesla.com.
Source: Tesla Q2 2026 Update (stations 8,704 · connectors 82,357)
TSLA vs Auto Sector ETF () — 1Y Performance (%)
Illustrative · not live ETF quotes
TSLA CARZ ETF
Revenue Waterfall Q3 → Q4 2025 ($B)
Shows what added/declined in revenue quarter-over-quarter
Gross Margin Bridge — FY2022 to FY2025
Key drivers of margin compression from 25.6% to 17.9%
Top Pure BEV Sales (World)
Battery electric only · PHEV / hybrid excluded · FY2024–FY2025 + H1 2026 YTD — 2026 not full year
#1 Pure BEV (latest)
BYD
867K units · H1 2026 YTD
Tesla Rank
#2
838K pure BEV
Tesla vs BYD BEV
−0.03M
H1 2026 YTD gap
Scope
BEV
no PHEV / EREV mix
Global Pure BEV Brand Sales (K units)
FY2024–FY2025 + H1 2026 YTD · do not read 2026 as full year · Tesla highlighted
Definition: pure battery electric (BEV) passenger vehicles only — no PHEV, no range-extended hybrids. BYD figure is pure-BEV subset (not full NEV). Tesla deliveries are 100% BEV. Other brands use company / industry tracker estimates of pure-BEV volume. Revenue ranking uses BEV-attributable auto $; BYD NEV auto is split/estimated; legacy OEMs often estimated from BEV units × ASP; never total ICE-inclusive revenue. Est. flagged when method/confidence is not high-reported. Sources: company IR, CnEVPost / CPCA, industry tallies (EV Volumes–style). Rankings can differ by wholesale vs retail and region cutoffs. Mixed periods on one chart — do not compare H1 2026 YTD bars to FY bars as if same length.
Ping me
When Tesla loses the BEV lead, earnings drop, or a promise flips.
DCF Calculator — Implied Share Price
Implied Share Price
$0
Base: TTM Revenue $103.6B (first >$100B TTM), FCF margin 6.5%, 3.756B shares. 5-year projection. This is a simplified model for educational purposes only.
Price Alert Simulator
Key Milestones Timeline
EV Competitor Comparison — FY2025 / Live Caps
MetricTeslaBYDRivianLucid
Revenue (FY)$94.8B$109.4B$4.8B$0.8B
Deliveries (FY)1.64M4.27M51K9K
Gross Margin17.9%20.4%-5.2%-112%
Net Income$3.8B$4.5B-$4.7B-$2.7B
Market Cap~$1.44T~$110B~$12B~$6B
P/S (TTM)~14.7x~1x~2.5x~7.5x
Cash$43.5B~$18B$5.8B$3.4B
H1 2026 deliv.838K
Source: Company filings, SEC 10-K/20-F. Tesla market cap/P/S live as of Jul 2026; Tesla cash = cash+investments end Q2’26 ($43.5B); peer caps/cash approximate.
FSD Miles Driven
Tesla FSD Safety Report · milestones via public trackers · tesla.com/fsd/safety
Supervised Miles
12.6B
Tesla FSD Safety counter
Unsupervised Miles
380K+
Ashok · Q2 2026 earnings
City Miles (Supervised)
4.87B
hardest training data
Latest 1B Pace
37 days
~27M supervised mi / day
Supervised FSD Miles (Billions)
FSD Supervised · 2026 YTD
Unsupervised Robotaxi Miles
Ashok Elluswamy Q2 2026 call · modeled path
Official (Jul 22, 2026): Ashok — >380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles across 6 cities / 2 states, zero notable incidents; double-digit week-over-week growth in weekly unsupervised miles since start of 2026. Musk — network growing >10% a week in miles driven. Intermediate months are a ~10% WoW compound model fitted to that endpoint (Tesla did not publish monthly cumulatives). Scale is still ~30,000× smaller than supervised FSD miles.
Days to Add Each 1 Billion Supervised Miles
Days per 1B miles · lower = faster
Sources: Tesla FSD Safety · annual increments Sawyer Merritt / Teslarati · billion-mile intervals from public counter reads · Tesla’s public counter is not real-time — it estimates daily growth and stair-steps when rebased.
Robotaxi Fleet Status
Snapshot Jul 24, 2026 · RobotaxiTracker.com · not official Tesla counts
Active Rider Vehicles
sum of live markets
Unsupervised Now
no driver in vehicle (TX)
Live Markets
metros with service
Largest City
Bay Area
supervised only (CA)
Robotaxi by City
Active rider vehicles · teal = unsupervised
Total rider vehicles Unsupervised subset
City Breakdown
CityRidersUnsupervisedModeStatus
Robotaxi Map
Pin = fleet size · green = unsupervised
Map tiles © OpenStreetMap. Coverage circles are approximate (circle model from public reports: Austin ~245 sq mi full metro; Dallas/Houston small launch zones; Miami tiny; Bay Area illustrative supervised footprint).Tip: zoom into Austin / Dallas / Houston / Miami — national view makes small zones look like dots.
Fleet Growth (Estimated Monthly)
Active rider vehicles over time
Cybercab Count
Tracker + spotter · Giga Texas production began · not official Tesla production totals
Tracked Test Fleet
~70+
RobotaxiTracker city tags
Spotter Peak
~220
Giga TX lot / drone counts
Status
In production
Giga Texas · early S-curve
Form Factor
2-seat
no wheel · no pedals
Cybercabs Over Time
Spotter / tracker estimates
Cybercab Timeline
Sources: RobotaxiTracker city Cybercab tags, Giga Texas drone / lot footage, Q1–Q2 2026 earnings (“production began”), community spotters. Counts are estimates of visible / tagged vehicles — not cumulative factory output or customer deliveries.
Optimus Humanoid
Tesla Q2 2026 Update · AI Day / We, Robot · not production volume reports
Now (hardware)
Gen 3
Fremont lines · Academy first
Next gen
Gen 4
Texas high-volume plan
Gen 4 site
Giga TX
~summer 2027 start claim
Musk price target
<$20–30K
claim · not list price
Gen 3 vs Gen 4
Did the Q2 call talk about Gen 4? Not as a focus. Q2 was about Gen 3 manufacturing difficulty (hardest product Tesla has scaled; volume wording removed). Gen 4 was laid out on the Q1 2026 call: Giga Texas factory ~summer 2027 for the higher-volume Gen 4 variant.
Earnings call notes (Optimus)
Q1–Q2 2026 calls / IR
Program Timeline (milestones)
Public demos & production statements
Milestone Path
Q2 2026 Update: Gen 3 Optimus lines installing at Fremont after Model S/X decommission. Initial builds go to Optimus Academy (training data / functionality) — not external customers. “Volume production” language was removed vs earlier 2026 guidance. Gen 4: Q1’26 call path = Giga Texas high-volume factory ~2027 (claim) — not in production. Sources: Tesla IR Q1–Q2 2026, Electrek Q1 call notes.
Promise Tracker (Optimus category)
From MuskHQ Promises tab · status as of site data
Tesla Semi
Nevada volume line · Q2 2026 IR · limited public delivery tallies
Volume line
Apr 2026
first truck off NV line
Factory capacity
50K/yr
nameplate · Giga Nevada
Range (demo)
500 mi
highway · max weight claim
Charge
1.2 MW
Megacharger class
Estimated Annual Semi Units (sparse)
Estimates · Tesla does not publish Semi units
Program Timeline
Reveal Nov 2017 → first PepsiCo deliveries Dec 2022 (limited pilot) → dedicated ~1.7M sq ft Nevada plant → volume production started ~Apr 29, 2026 (first unit off high-volume line). Early customers: PepsiCo, DHL, Walmart, Costco (public reports). Analyst 2026 volume often cited 5–15K (not Tesla guidance). Q2 2026: Tesla increasing 4680 cells to support Semi + Cybercab + Model Y ramps. Sources: Tesla Semi X account / IR, Electrek Apr 2026, Wikipedia Tesla Semi.
Promise Tracker (Semi-related)
Megapack & Energy Storage
Same deployment / revenue series as Market charts · Tesla IR
Q2 2026 Deployed
13.5 GWh
record quarter · IR
H1 2026
22.3 GWh
8.8 + 13.5
FY2025 Deployed
46.7 GWh
+113% YoY
Q2 Energy Rev
$3.14B
+13% YoY
Energy Storage Deployments (GWh)
From Tesla charts data
Energy Revenue ($B)
Energy storage + solar · IR
Megafactory Capacity (nameplate GWh/yr)
Nameplate capacity · Q2 2026 Update
Lathrop CA Megapack 40 GWh · Shanghai Megapack 20 GWh · Nevada Powerwall >6 GWh · Texas Megapack commissioning. Megapack 3 + Megablock targeted to begin production 2026 at Megafactory Texas (volume timing tightened in mid-2026 commentary). Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update PDF, prior IR energy tables (also plotted on Market tab).
Batteries & Cells
4680 + supplier cells
Cell formats
2170 / 4680
+ supplier LFP packs
4680 status
Ramping
Cybercab · Semi · Y
Battery Day
Sep 2020
5× energy claim (target)
Storage link
Megapack
mostly non-4680 today
4680 Readiness Score (qualitative)
Qualitative 0–100
Where Cells Go (illustrative share)
Illustrative mix
Battery Timeline
Promise Tracker (4680 / battery)
Chips & AI Compute
Vehicle inference (HW / AI) · Dojo / Cortex training · foundry partners · estimates labeled
Fleet inference
HW3 → AI4
AI4+ mid-band · AI5 next
HW3 system
~144 TOPS
Tesla dual-chip claim (2019)
AI4 (HW4)
~3–5× HW3
~300–500 TOPS (est.)
Training path
Nvidia + xAI
Dojo deprioritized 2025–26
Chip Roadmap Timeline
Tap a label for source
Inference Compute by Generation (TOPS)
Claims + estimates · AI5/AI6 roadmap
Peak Power Draw (W) — inference computers
Public peak-power claims
Where Training Happens (narrative)
Illustrative mix · not GPU inventory
Q4 2025 / early 2026 messaging: Dojo deprioritized in favor of Nvidia GPUs and xAI Colossus for FSD training. AI5 / AI6 messaging mixes vehicle inference, Optimus, and cluster use — treat as roadmap, not fleet fact.
Generation Spec Sheet
Source Posts & Explainers
Sources
Promise Tracker (chips / HW / Dojo)
China NEV Market
Source: CPCA, CAAM, company IR filings
China Total NEV Sales (M units)
BEV + PHEV · Source: CAAM
Brand Growth Comparison (K units)
Revenue Comparison ($B USD)
Quarterly 2023–Q2 2026 · Tesla Q2’26 official; peer Q2’26 pending · Source: company IR
Net Profit / Loss Comparison ($B USD)
Quarterly 2023–Q2 2026 · Negative = net loss · Source: Company reports
Latest Update — Q2 2026 Earnings (Jul 22)
  • Record revenue, profit miss: Revenue $28.24B (+26% YoY, beat). GAAP EPS $0.32 / non-GAAP $0.33 (miss). GAAP NI $1.11B. Gross margin 16.8%; operating income $398M (1.4% margin).
  • First >$100B TTM revenue: Trailing-twelve-month revenue ~$103.6B. TTM GAAP EPS $1.08.
  • Capex surge / FCF burn: Operating cash flow $4.70B; capex $5.79B (+142% YoY) → FCF −$1.09B. Cash + investments $43.52B. FY26 capex guided >$25B.
  • Segments: Auto $20.52B (+23%), Energy $3.14B (+13%), Services $4.58B (+50%, record GP/margin). Regulatory credits only $146M (−67% YoY).
  • Ops: Deliveries 480,126 (+25% YoY) · production 451,758 · inventory 15 days (drew down Q1 stack). Storage 13.5 GWh. Superchargers: 8,704 stations / 82,357 connectors.
  • Autonomy & hardware: Cybercab production began at Giga Texas. Robotaxi live in 7 major metros (incl. 3 FL cities in July). Active FSD subscriptions 1.48M. Optimus line construction at Fremont after S/X decommission. See dedicated tabs: Optimus · Semi · Megapack · Batteries.
  • H1 2026: ~838K vehicles delivered. Energy storage H1 = 22.3 GWh. Stockholders’ equity $86.9B end-Q2.
  • FSD miles: Counter crossed 12B cumulative FSD (Supervised) miles on Jul 17, 2026 (~27M mi/day on last 1B).
Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update PDF, production 8-K, earnings call · site refresh Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Highlights
Promise Accuracy Over Time (%)
Accuracy = delivered / (delivered + missed) for promises with that target year
Promises by Category
Promises by Status
FSD Promise Timeline (Gantt View)
Every FSD/autonomy promise mapped on a single timeline. Red = missed, green = delivered.
ARK Invest TSLA Price Target 2029
Bear
$800
Base
$1,400
Bull
$2,600
Source: ARK Big Ideas 2025 · Open-source model
Revenue Mix — Bull Case 2029
Robotaxi
$536B
63% of revenue · 7.5M fleet
Vehicle Sales
$204B
24% · ~12M units
Energy
$68B
8% · Storage + Solar
Insurance + Other
$42B
5% · Fleet data advantage
Key Assumptions
1
Robotaxi Launch & Scaling
ARK assumes Tesla launches unsupervised robotaxi in multiple US cities by 2026, scaling to 7.5M fleet vehicles by 2029.
Current reality (Jul 2026): ~760 active rider vehicles across 9 metros (Bay Area ~643 dominates, still supervised-only in CA). Unsupervised subset ~30 in TX. Cybercab production began; ~220 spotter peak. Far from 7.5M scale. Risk: Regulatory approval, reliability, public trust. Waymo still leads unsupervised scale.
2
Revenue per Robotaxi: $71K–$100K/yr
Each autonomous vehicle generates $71K–$100K annual revenue through ride-hailing, assuming 50-70% utilization rate at ~$1/mile.
Comparison: Uber drivers average ~$40-50K gross revenue/year. Waymo charges $2-4/mile in SF. ARK assumes Tesla undercuts at ~$1/mile but runs 16+ hours/day. Key variable: Utilization rate. Current Tesla robotaxi utilization: ~19% of operating hours. Needs 3-4x improvement.
3
12M Vehicle Sales by 2029
ARK projects Tesla sells ~12M vehicles annually by 2029, up from 1.64M in 2025. Requires 7x growth in 4 years.
Growth needed: ~63% CAGR. Tesla's actual CAGR 2020-2025 was ~27%. Deliveries declined in 2024 (-1%) and 2025 (-8.6%), but Q2 2026 jumped +25% YoY to 480K. H1 2026 = 838K. New models needed: Cybercab, affordable volume car, refreshed lineup. Risk: Competition from BYD (4.3M in 2025), legacy OEMs, Chinese EVs.
4
FSD Adoption: 50%+ Take Rate
ARK assumes FSD subscription adoption reaches 50%+ of Tesla fleet as unsupervised driving proves reliable.
Current take rate: Estimated 5-10% of new Tesla buyers purchase FSD ($8K) or subscribe ($99/mo). ARK needs 5-10x increase. Catalyst: True unsupervised FSD would be transformative. Signal: 12B cumulative FSD miles as of Jul 2026. Blocker: Consumer FSD still Level 2 supervised for most users.
5
40%+ Operating Margin on Robotaxi
ARK assumes software-like margins on robotaxi revenue since Tesla owns the stack: hardware, software, fleet, and network.
Logic: Once FSD works, marginal cost per ride is low (electricity + maintenance). Tesla keeps ~70%+ of fare (no driver). Comparison: Uber takes 25-30% and is barely profitable. Waymo's unit economics are still unpublished. Risk: Insurance costs, regulatory fees, fleet maintenance could erode margins significantly.
Bear vs Bull — What Must Go Right
Bear Case ($800)
  • Robotaxi delayed to 2028+
  • Vehicle sales flat at ~2M/yr
  • FSD remains supervised
  • Margins stay compressed
  • Competition erodes market share
Bull Case ($2,600)
  • Unsupervised FSD works by 2027
  • Robotaxi in 50+ cities by 2029
  • 12M+ vehicle deliveries
  • Energy becomes $50B+ business
  • Optimus begins generating revenue
Analysis based on ARK Invest's open-source TSLA valuation model (Feb 2025). GitHub Model
Tesla Quick Facts
Founded
Jul 1, 2003
CEO
Elon Musk
Headquarters
Austin, TX
Employees
~140,000
Factories
6 Gigafactories
Fremont, CA
Model S/X/3/Y
Shanghai
Model 3/Y
Berlin
Model Y
Austin, TX
Model Y, Cybertruck
Nevada
Batteries, Packs
Lathrop, CA
Megapack
IPO Date
Jun 29, 2010
Ticker
TSLA (NASDAQ)
FY2025 Revenue
$94.8B
FY2025 Deliveries
1.64M
H1 2026 Deliveries
838K
TTM Revenue
$103.6B
FSD Miles
12.0B
Next Earnings
Oct 22, 2026

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